Assumptions made:
I rarely ever use my allowance for texts or talk.
I am a moderate to heavy data user, and perceive my current iphone 3G usage as a web device more than phone.
I want to pay the minimum monthly fee, including purchase costs.
Steve Jobs announces new product in June, so 18 month contracts need "bridging" strategies: just letting it run incurs a higher monthly cost than equivalent 24 month contracts; SIM-only contracts are either monthly (£++) or yearly (6m too much), but much cheaper than 18/24m charges; 18m under contract plus 6*1m Sim-only gives the best comparison to 24m contracts; sadly, no supplier gives a discount for "loyalty" (O2 for example think they're doing existing customers a favour letting them buy iphone4s at all!), so there is nothing beneficial in being under contract and upgrading.
Method for analysis: purchase price plus cost for 24 months - either by straight 2 year contracts or cheapest available 18m plus sim-only 6m top up. Comparison is focussed on total costs for 2 years. NOTE: if you use more than 75-100mins of talk or 250+ texts there may be small increases, but at least these will be costs you've legitimately used, rather than potential usage that isn't used and doesn't roll over! If you use more than 500MB (O2), 750MB (Orange "fair use" so cost unclear) or 1GB (Vodafone) you will incur additional charges. Therefore, the following results may vary for you. If you want the full spreadsheet - I limited analysis to contracts under £1200 total (~£50/m) as anyone willing to pay more than this either doesn't need to save or is mad! - then leave a comment here.
Ok, here goes…
Most expensive for both 16GB and 32GB best price was…
Orange: £889 (16GB [£169 purchase price] £30/m 24m), £989 (32GB [£269] £30/m 24m)
These included 150 mins talk 250 texts and 750MB data a month.
Second most expensive for best price deals, controversially given the unusual purchase pricing for 18/24m contracts is…
O2: £869 (16GB [£209] £30/m 18m+6m@£20 sim-only [£929 if you don't switch!]), £923 (32GB [£323] £25/m 24m)
This gets you 100mins talk unlimited texts but ONLY 500MB data a month.
Finally, the cheapest <drum roll please> over 2 years, ready for that quick network change for 2012's best deal on the iphone5G, which will make toast for you, burned with an Apple Logo and massage away your fevered headache…
Vodafone: £819 (16GB [£219] £25/m 24m), £909 (32GB [£309] £25/m 24m)
This is much cheaper! And provides only 75mins talk, 250 texts but a whopping 1GB data a month. This is pretty good and for me the savings easily make up for low minutes and text allowances. If you push to £30/m for either phone (£70 more for 16GB, £80 for 32GB over 2 years) you get 300mins and unlimited texts and still be cheaper than other networks for similar allowances! NOTE: The sneaky (apparently) cheaper phone purchase prices, which are inverted to total costs; Orange appears cheapest for both models; O2 is strangely the most expensive for the 32GB on its best total cost deal, but the 16GB is second highest purchase price for second most expensive best deal; you pay more up front for Vodafone for the 16GB and not quite the most for the 32GB, but the total cost means penny-wise but pound foolish if you buy from the others!
For me in the South Wales valleys, where mobile phone signals don't run up hills, an important issue is network coverage. Signal in my valley, Cwmaman, where the Stereophonics come from (several are my neighbours!), is fairly patchy for all networks equally, but Vodafone Sure Signal (£50 one off fee) uses your broadband (sadly rather crap in rural Wales, barely faster than dial up, and especially bad recently as Richard Jones of the aforementioned band moved in and seems to have hogged our local bandwidth!) to boost indoor signal. So, basically, the big V has won!
Reasons for shifting from O2: arrogance over data capping no loyalty bonus for upgrading customers; bizarre pricing that is IMHO intended to deliberately confuse and cost more. Sorry O2. I will say this in your defence, you are the only network to make clear that Visual Voicemail is free. Make customers a decent offer and we could reconsider. Expect a PAC request at the end of this blog post!
Reasons NOT to move to Orange: Apart from brig the mist expensive, the odd free cinema ticket dissent really cut it. Only people desperate to stay with Orange will get an iPhone from you.
Please Note: T-Mobile have yet to announce pricing. So, it all may change… However, I wouldn't hold your breath. Sorry T-M, I think you've missed the boat!
@DoctorMikeReddy on Twitter.
Written entirely on an O2 iPhone 3G with intermittent data and regular loss of signal on the train up from Newport to Newcastle.

